SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP015
ARLP015 Propagation DE KT7H
QST DE W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15  ARLP015
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  April 16, 1993
To All Radio Amateurs

Solar flux dropped dramatically this past week.  On the day that
this bulletin was written, the flux had sunk all the way to 88,
which is lower than it has been in a long time.  This is a preview
of even lower flux values that we will observe over the next few
years.  This translates to lower Maximum Usable Frequencies and less
worldwide propagation.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled over the past
week, with K indices as low as one on some days, and up to five on
others.

Solar flux should remain low over the next week, and then start to
pick up after April 23.  It will probably peak near 140 after the
end of the month, and then down again.  There is a chance of some
disturbed conditions this weekend, centered around April 17, and an
even greater disturbance around May 2.

Sunspot Numbers from April 8 to 14 were 145, 134, 118, 90, 56, 39
and 40, with a mean of 88.9.  10.7 cm flux was 143.1, 135.5, 139,
118.8, 103.2, 97.2 and 92.2, with a mean of 118.4.

The path projection for this week is from Cleveland, Ohio to the
Congo.

80 meters should be open from 2300z to 0530z, with the best
conditions from 0100z to 0430z.  40 meters should be open from 2200z
to 0600z, peaking from 2300z to 0530z.  30 meters should be open
from 2100z to 0500z, with best conditions from 2230z to 0300z.
20 meters should be open from 1900z to 0230z, with best conditions
from 2100z to 0200z.  17 meters should be open on some days from
1600z to 2300z, and 15 meters open only marginally from 1900z to
2130z.  Conditions do not look good for 12 or 10 meters.
/EX